Breeders’ Cup Saturday Serves Up Flat Out Exciting Classic as Havre de Grace Takes on Boys

While she is not nearly as well known as Zenyatta, the four-year-old filly Havre de Grace will attempt to join her as just the second female to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) this afternoon when she takes on a field of eleven males at Churchill Downs.

A winner of five of six starts this year, a victory would wrap up Horse of the Year honors for the Larry Jones trainee, and she would become the third female in a row to take down year end honors, following in the hoofsteps of Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta.

Among the males standing in her way include 2010 champion two-year-old Uncle Mo, who is coming off a career top effort in his victory in the Kelso Handicap (G2) at Belmont Park going a one turn mile.

The Todd Pletcher trainee appears fully recovered from a liver ailment that knocked him out of the Triple Crown races, but is a pair of one turn races against weaker enough to have him ready to go 1 ¼ miles?

Flat Out was no match for Havre de Grace in the Woodward(G1) back in September at Saratoga, but came out of that race to win the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) impressively and has been the buzz horse at Churchill Downs all week.

Hall of fame trainer Bill Mott sends out a pair of runners in To Honor and Serve and Drosselmeyer, who both are coming into the Classic in good shape.

Mott took down the Ladies’ Classic (G1) for the second year in a row yesterday with Royal Delta.

Havre de Grace will be sharing the spotlight with another female on Saturday, who was overshadowed in the past two years by Zenyatta.

Goldikova comes into this year’s Mile looking for an unprecedented four straight win, and while the brilliant mare has only won two of her five starts this year, she ran second in the other three starts, and her trainer Freddy Head says she has not lost a step.

There are some that are saying she is far from invincible this year and she has lost a step over her best, but her Racing Post and Timeform ratings do not agree with that assessment.

Among the foes she will have to hold off late are 2009 runner up Courageous Cat and 2010 runner up Gio Ponti, who are both coming into the race off sharp preps.

Let’s head out to Churchill Downs for Saturday’s featured race of the day:

• Flat Out 6/1
• To Honor and Serve 12/1
• Drosselmeyer 15/1
• Havre de Grace 3/1

Analysis: Flat Out is coming into the Classic in great shape and has been the buzz horse in the mornings as he has thrived since arriving at Churchill Downs. His last start was one of his best, rallying to win the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) over a muddy track that was more favorable to inside speed that day. Two back the five year old came up 1 1/4 lengths short of the filly Havre de Grace, but he did not really get much pace to run at that day and should be able to turn the tables going 1 1/4 miles as the filly is suspect to get the distance at this level. The Scooter Dickey trainee popped a bullet work over the main track on Oct. 30 and while he is 0 for 2 over the main track here, one those two losses came when he was still a maiden and the other was a sixth place finish in the Stephen Foster (G1) where he made a bid on the inside on a day where the rail was dead. I don't think we are going to see the 6/1 ML unless the casual fans send it in on Grace and Mo, but I'll take 4/1 or better on this guy.

To Honor and Serve has really looked good in his last two starts, last out taking the Pennsylvania Derby (G2), earning a career top speed fig in the effort and beating a couple of runners he faces again today. He did get in light that day carrying 1114 pounds so he picks up eight today. The Bill Mott runner won his last two starts at nine furlongs and he has given every indication he can handle the extra ground here. He has worked smartly and three year olds have held their own in the Classic, taking 9 of the 27 previous runnings including a pair here at Churchill Downs, Concern winning in '94 and Tiznow in '00. We should get a fair price on this guy.

Drosselmeyer is also sent out by the Mott barn and has been working smartly here at Churchill Downs. The colt was my upset pick in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and he did come with a belated late run to grab the runner up spot while no match for #2 Flat Out, beaten 2 1/4 lengths. He did race against the grain of the track bias that day and is eligible to move forward off that effort. We know this guy can handle the 1 1/4 miles, as he won the One Count at Belmont Park at this distance as well as taking the 1 1/2 mile Belmont Stakes (G1) last June. If #12 Uncle Mo and #8 Game On Dude mix it up early, it could set things up nicely for the Mott runners to be coming home late.

Havre de Grace has just been awesome this year, winning five of six starts with the lone loss coming at the hands of Blind Luck by a nose in the Delaware handicap (G2). She proved she can handle the boys with her win over Flat Out in the Woodward (G1) at Saratoga, but that outing was at 1 1/8 miles and she is 0 for 2 at today's 1 1/4 mile distance, and both of those losses were against her own sex. She should be right there inside the final furlong but cold come up lacing late and her price is likely going to be on the light side.

So You Think invades from overseas for the Aidan O'Brien barn that has run second in this race, saddling Giant’s Causeway ('00) and Henrythenavigator ('08) to and in the bottom half of the exacta. The five year old is one of the top horses in the world at the distance on turf, with the main question mark whether or not he can handle conventional dirt. he has lost his last two after winning the Eclipse (G1) and Irish Champion Stakes (G1) three and four back, those two wins at 1 1/4 miles. he gets blinkers and lasix for his U.S. debut and while O'Brien is just 4 for 63 in Breeders' Cup races in his career, he has been sending over live runners to the U.S. in '11, winning five Grade 1 races form his last ten starters, all the wins coming on the turf including a trio of victories by Cape Blanco.

Uncle Mo earned a huge Beyer (118) last out in the Kelso (G2) going a one turn mile, the second highest Beyer posted by any runner in '11. There is no doubt he is fully recovered from his liver ailment that knocked him out of the Triple Crown races, but asking him to go 1 1/4 miles off just two shorter prices may be asking too much. He took advantage of a speed friendly racing strip winning the Kelso. He just looks like a major underlay if he goes off near his 5/2 ML.

Wagering
WIN: Flat Out to win at 7/2 or better.
EX: 2,13 / 2,3,10,13
TRI: 2,13 / 2,3,10,13 / 2,3,5,10,12,13

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