Super Saturday: “Mo” is Back, “Havre” is Graceful, No “Luck” in Breeders’ Cup

There were few surprises on Super Saturday, with the winner of nine of the ten Breeders’ Cup Challenge races returning $6.40 or less.

At Belmont Park the winners paid $3.00, $3.20, $26.40, $3.20, $2.90, and $4.80.

At Santa Anita the winning horses paid just $5.80, $5.80, $4.70, and $6.40.

For the ten races, that is an average mutual payoff of $6.57, and if we knock out the lone longshot Giant Ryan ($26.40) who won the Vosburgh, the average payoff for the other nine races was a paltry $4.37.

However, we are going to get some decent prices on Breeders’ Cup Day on some of the participants that made their final prep on Saturday, and there are a few others I am going to be looking forward to betting against.

Here are a few quick observations of the some of the key players that ran on Saturday:

Havre de Grace: The brilliant filly only had to beat four foes in the Beldame, but she did it in style, drawing clear to win by 8 ¼ lengths over the talented three-year-old filly Royal Delta, who had won the Alabama (G1) by 5 ½ lengths in her previous start. The race sets her up perfectly for another run against the boys in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

She beat males in the Woodward (G1) earning a 111 Beyer and she earned a 105 for her Beldame win. Flat Out certainly flattered her score in the Woodward when he came back to win the Jockey Club Gold Cup. She put some serious distance on her arch rival Blind Luck, who was eased in the Lady’s Secret and will miss the Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic.

Trainer Larry Jones said on Sunday, “If she wins the Classic, then definitely it’s a no-brainer that she is Horse of the Year. But I don’t think for us to still be considered for Horse of the Year we necessarily have to win the Classic. But we have to show up and run big.”

Uncle Mo: Track announcer Tom Durkin exclaimed, “He’s Baaaacccckkk!” as last year’s champion juvenile crossed the wire three lengths in front to win the Kelso. The colt earned a lofty 118 Beyer, the top number on Super Saturday, and the second highest number of any runner in 2011.

The only horse to earn better than a 118 was Big Drama, who popped a 120 winning the Mr. Prospector back in January at Gulfstream Park.

There is a big difference between winning the one turn mile Kelso and winning the Breeders’ Cup Classic at 1 ¼ miles around two turns, and Uncle Mo is not likely to offer much betting value, likely to be sent off as the favorite or second choice in the Classic.

The colt did take advantage of a racing strip that was kind to speed on Saturday, and he could turn out to be a major underlay next month.

Cape Blanco: Three trips across the pond to the U.S. have produced three consecutive Grade 1 victories, the Man O’ War, Arlington Million, and last Saturday’s Joe Hirsch Turf Classic.

He held off the late run of Dean’s Kitten by a nose under a rather energetic ride from Jamie Spencer, who looks awful on a horse and he looked like he was mugging Cape Blanco in the stretch.

This colt has racked up the frequent flier miles this year, and will be making his fourth trip to the U.S. next month for the Turf, where he likely goes off as the favorite.

I cannot see myself backing this colt next month for the top spot, as I am no fan of Spencer and this guy had to work very hard to pick up the win. His gas tank appears near empty.

UPDATE: Cape Blanco was retired due to an injury he sustained in winning the Joe Hirsch according to an announcement made Monday morning by trainer Aidan O’Brien’s wife.

Stacelita: This is one very talented mare, winning the Flower Bowl by two measured lengths with jockey Ramon Dominguez only having to go to the whip once.

Her two previous starts in the U.S. were also impressive, a third against the boys in the United Nations and a victory in the Beverly D. over yielding footing.

She is going to be very tough in the Filly & Mare Turf.

Giant Ryan: The upset winner of the Vosburgh came out of the race fine and will point toward the Breeders’ Cup Sprint.

The five-year-old was aided by the fact that Euroears was bumped around and had to steady early and found himself all alone on the front end over a speed favoring racing strip. That is not going to happen in the Sprint.

It also helped that the likely favorite Big Drama spiked a fever and was a late scratch.

He earned a 104 Beyer which stacks up nicely with several of his other top efforts, but I do not see him being a major factor next month.

Flat Out: I thought both Flat Out and Stay Thirsty were going to be underlays in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, so I took a stab going with Drosselmeyer, who did make a mild late rally to finish second at nearly 9/1 odds.

Flat Out earned a 107 Beyer for his victory, and his runner up finish behind Havre de Grace looks a bit better now that the filly came back to win the Beldame.

Trainer by 70-year-old Charles Dickey, the son of Flatter showed he can handle 1 ¼ miles, and it will be interesting to see what price this guy ends up in the Classic as Uncle Mo and Havre de Grace figure to get most of attention over the next month.

Life At Ten: It will be good to see this mare head to the breeding shed after another disappointing effort in the Beldame. She has shown little since the debacle in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic, and has been a constant reminder for me that this sport lacks integrity when it comes to protecting the betting public.

Blind Luck: The shocker of the day was the dull performance of Blind Luck in the Lady’s Secret at Santa Anita. The filly came into the race with 21 career starts and was never off the board, winning a dozen, finishing second seven times with a pair of thirds.

She trailed early and it was obvious after four furlongs that something was amiss. She was eased nearing the wire and beaten 18 ¾ lengths.

Her trainer Jerry Hollendorfer said she will not participate in the Ladies Classic and is heading to the sidelines, but as of Monday morning there was explanation forthcoming about her subpar outing.

The trainer said, “Right now, I would say she definitely will not run in the Breeders’ Cup. But she came back fine. I don’t know why she threw in a bad race. She never did that before.”

Super Saturday is in the books, but there are still 15 “Win and You’re In” races to be run, including seven over the first three days of the Keeneland meeting, which opens on Friday.

Michael Dempsey provides his full card report for Belmont Park each racing day. Mike’s full card report includes his selections, analysis, fair odds line, and wagering recommendations. Get a month of action from the Belmont Park meeting for a special price of $79.95!

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