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After the performances of Big Brown and Curlin, in the Haskell and Woodward respectively, horses with aspirations toward the Breeders' Cup Classic had major upset hope as both of those stars showed vulnerability.
This may be the best shot in several years for horse bettors to hit it out of the park in the Classic with a long shot bomb.
Granted, Big Brown came back and was game winning his grass prep at Monmouth on the 13th, but he was pushed at the end and you don't quite know how that will affect him. His Beyer of 105 was solid and although he beat a promising runner in Proudinsky, that guy has only won once this year and it was a surface, a yielding course that many of his Fair Grounds foes didn't like.
Before conceding the BC Classic to one of these two stars, know that Brown and Curlin have NEVER raced on a synthetic surface.
Going back to Brown's last dirt run, horse bettors have to not only evaluate the win of Big Brown in the Haskell, when he posted a solid 106 Beyer, but the way he did it.
To the naked eye, he didn't look like he was going to get up with a furlong to go. He didn't have the added acceleration he flashed in the past and he kind of just grinded out the victory.
Players also have to look at whom he beat. The place horse in the Haskell, Coal Play, who ran his eyeballs out on the front end, is still eligible for non-winners of three other than allowance fray.
As far as Curlin is concerned, he posted his 7th straight stateside triple-digit Beyer winning the Woodward but he had to come from a half dozen lengths back and was just inching away late.
Considering whom Curlin beat, the same issues confront him, as does Big Brown..
First off, the place horse in the Woodward, Past the Point, has some stamina concerns as he's lost ground in the lane in every single race this year.
He was a mere 40-1 in the Woodward and like Coal Play, could still enter non-winners of three other than allowance fray.
So whom can horse bettors start to pencil in as possible upsetters in the BC Classic this year?
Let's look across the Pond initially with Henrythenavigator.
All this student of Aidan O'Brien has done this year is win his first 4 starts, all Group 1s, before missing as chalk in the Prix de Moulin de Longchamp just over a month ago.
He may not have cared for the course that day, had to come from 9th early after busting from post 11 and was still making an impact late.
Henry is the star of the family, but his other two siblings to race won and his dam banked over $150,000 taking 2 of 9 starts.
If the Navigator ends up going in the BC Mile, O'Brien could plug in Duke of Marmalade, a very sweet performer in his own right. The Duke can run all day, has won 5 in a row this year, has tactical speed, has been out of the money only once and that by just a neck.
Duke also will bring a $2.5 million bankroll to the party.
O'Brien also knows what it takes to bring a horse to America and win. Even novice horse bettors know that since 2000, he has who 3 BC races with Johannesburg and High Chaparral twice and he's also saddled the winner of the Arlington Million.
The American based runners that could shock in the BC Classic include Mast Track and Giant Gizmo, both trained by Bobby Frankel.
Mast Track has the style that projecting horse bettors should respect. He has the ability to sit just off the pace, track possibly a tiring Big Brown, and then get first run on a tracking Curlin at crunch time.
Giant Gizmo has won two of his 3 Santa Anita starts, so that gives him a built-in home court advantage and he's starting to peak just now.
He also has beaten some nice horses and he doesn't need a glib track to do it. The runner that was third to him in his first Graded win, Wanderin Boy, has won 39% of his starts and is already a millionaire.
Remember, the best horse bettors in the sport don't settle but scour the earth for winners.
Saratoga
Saratoga opens for the 143rd year on Friday, July 22 for an outstanding 40-day meeting that includes over 50 stakes races and 17 Grade 1 races. The marquee event of the meeting is the $1 million Travers Stakes (G1) on Saturday, Aug. 27.
Michael Dempsey will be providing his full card selections throughout the meeting. Mike’s Reports include his selections, analysis, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for every race.
Get your day off to a good start with Michael’s Free Pick of the day from Saratoga.
For information on Saratoga including stakes information, wagering menu, post time information, and track layout Click Here.
Keeneland
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Churchill Downs
The spring/summer meeting at Churchill Downs gets underway on Saturday April 30, with 24 graded stakes on the betting menu. The marquee events are the Kentucky Oaks (G1) and Kentucky Derby (G1).
Michael Dempsey will be providing Full Card Analysis for Churchill Downs from Friday through Sunday each week.
Each racing day Michael will be providing his Free Betting Selection of the day for Churchill Downs.
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Belmont Park
Racing in New York shifts to Belmont Park on Friday April 29 for the spring / summer meeting, which includes the Belmont Stakes (G1) on Saturday June 11.
Michael Dempsey will be providing Full Card Analysis for Belmont Park each racing day from Wednesday through Sunday.
Each racing day Michael will be providing his Free Betting Selection of the day for Belmont Park.
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Gulfstream Park
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Aqueduct
For Aqueduct racing info including racing dates, stakes schedule, track layout and contact information, Click Here
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