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A wise gentleman named Hugh White once said, "When you make a mistake, don't look back at it long. Take the reason of the thing into your mind and then look forward. Mistakes are lessons of wisdom."
Some lessons horse bettors learn are from events on the racetrack, others are from events in bars. As a bachelor I lived down the beach in Southern California and one day ran into trainer Mike Mitchell at a local watering hole and what he told me that day changed the way I pick winners.
Mitchell had recently saddled a first-time starter, a very fast filly, that won for fun first crack drawing out by 6 or 7 lengths.
The horse was bred just okay, but she was so visually impressive that I had circled her as a 'bet back' next time.
The 'bet-back' changed after I ran into Mitchell.
I mentioned to him that she was a nice filly and should be very tough next time she ran and Mitchell's response was ' she just beat maidens and now she will have to face a much tougher crew'.
What he was telling me was something out of Handicapping 101 but it hit home in a hurry.
Sure enough, the filly came back next time, went like a fat 2-1 on the tote and only showed brief speed before reality set in as she faded badly.
With that lesson learned, horse players can re-evaluate that position as we take a look at the first 10 maidens winners at the Oak Tree meet that returned and see what happened in their next starts.
The first winner of the meeting was Costa Marta, and odds-on hero for Marty Jones who raced next at Fresno and was a disappointing 3rd, also at odds-on.
Next came Cat Brulay, a maiden special weight winner who returned a month later in a $40,000 optional and was out of the money.
Fiesty Suances is an exception as she repeated in a logical next out spot in a $40,000 starter race at a nice 3-1.
Just N Excess broke her maiden in a $25,000 maiden seller, then came back at 7-1 and was crushed in a $40,000 starter race.
Warrens A P Strike graduated by a length when not offered for sale, then returned at 5-1 and only beat one horse home.
Hot n Dusty also took a maiden special weight fray, then was beaten a total of over 16 lengths combined in her next 2 starts.
Merge beat maiden $32,000 claiming foes in her debut, but was dead last beaten over 17 lengths at only 9-2 in her next start.
Orthodox wired a field to graduate and showed good speed in his next start before running 7th when the smoke cleared.
Casino Gold posted a 75 Beyer in a maiden special weight fray, then was beaten a total of 10 lengths in her next 2 starts.
The tenth Oak Tree maiden winner, Lion Heart Victory, beat maiden $32,000 claiming rivals to win, was 5th beaten over a dozen lengths in the next out.
Horse bettors that take short cuts are the first ones to leave the track muttering or heading to the ATM. The best players resist the temptation to take the easy road, but they go the extra mile when attempting to smoke out winners.
Play recent maiden winners at your own risk from now on.
Saratoga
Saratoga opens for the 143rd year on Friday, July 22 for an outstanding 40-day meeting that includes over 50 stakes races and 17 Grade 1 races. The marquee event of the meeting is the $1 million Travers Stakes (G1) on Saturday, Aug. 27.
Michael Dempsey will be providing his full card selections throughout the meeting. Mike’s Reports include his selections, analysis, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for every race.
Get your day off to a good start with Michael’s Free Pick of the day from Saratoga.
For information on Saratoga including stakes information, wagering menu, post time information, and track layout Click Here.
Keeneland
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Get Free Racing Picks for Keeneland from professional handicapper Michael Dempsey or purchase his top selections by Clicking Here
Churchill Downs
The spring/summer meeting at Churchill Downs gets underway on Saturday April 30, with 24 graded stakes on the betting menu. The marquee events are the Kentucky Oaks (G1) and Kentucky Derby (G1).
Michael Dempsey will be providing Full Card Analysis for Churchill Downs from Friday through Sunday each week.
Each racing day Michael will be providing his Free Betting Selection of the day for Churchill Downs.
For information on Churchill Downs including stakes information, wagering menu, post time information, and track layout Click Here
Belmont Park
Racing in New York shifts to Belmont Park on Friday April 29 for the spring / summer meeting, which includes the Belmont Stakes (G1) on Saturday June 11.
Michael Dempsey will be providing Full Card Analysis for Belmont Park each racing day from Wednesday through Sunday.
Each racing day Michael will be providing his Free Betting Selection of the day for Belmont Park.
For information on Belmont Park including stakes information, wagering menu, post time information, and track layout Click Here
Gulfstream Park
For information on Gulfstream Park including stakes information, wagering menu, post time information, and track layout Click Here
Get Free Selections for Gulfstream Park from professional handicapper Brian Mulligan or purchase his highly rated selections by
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Aqueduct
For Aqueduct racing info including racing dates, stakes schedule, track layout and contact information, Click Here
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