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FINAL CUP ANALYSIS


Philosopher Francis Bacon would have been a good horseplayer if his thoughts about history translated. Bacon: "Histories make men wise; poets, witty; the mathematics, subtle; natural philosophy, deep; moral, grave; logic and rhetoric, able to contend'.

Truer words were never spoken and the words could easily be transferred to horse racing.

Horse bettors are constantly searching for just the right mix of history and of being in the present and one way they achieve that goal is to learn from what just happened in front of them.

On the first day of Breeders' Cup this year, fillies were showcased and the performances by champions Stardom Bound and Zenyatta could mean that the ladies will face the boys more often in the future in the same rein as Rags to Riches, who beat Horse of the Year Curlin in the Belmont Stakes last year.

The first lesson to be learned from October 24 is horse bettors should treat Bobby Frankel like E. F. Hutton, who in the famous investing commercials used to whisper as the room went hush.

All week long Frankel was telling anybody in earshot that Ventura was his best chance in the Cup and she unleashed a rally that was flat-out sensational.

Horse bettors should also appreciate the fact that Frankel loves to give his horses time and is great off a layoff and Ventura was coming off a clever 7-week vacation.


The Frankel factor was realized in the very next race as his former assistant Chad Brown watched his filly Maram stay unbeaten winning the Juvenile Fillies Turf. Already training for the Sheikhs of Dubai, Brown just had his coming out party and bettors should circle all of his starters from now on.

The rest of the fillies in the world, with the exception of superstar Zarkava, will be measured by Zenyatta, who raised her record to 8 in a row when posting a 103 Beyer with a hand ride to take the Ladies Classic and could be well on her way to Horse of the Year status.

The final thoughts about the Pro-Ride on the first day of the Breeders' Cup this year accentuate the fact that synthetic experience is paramount to winning on the Pro-Ride surface.

It's almost obvious now, the Europeans will be back in spades for next year's Breeders' Cup.

They won 5 of the 9 races on the Saturday BC card and horse bettors have to know that the Pro-Ride surface is perfect for the runners that come from across the pond.

First off, many, many Euros train on some sort of synthetic course and it fits the climate of Europe much better than the hot climate of California.

Once again, having experience, either winning or losing experience on the synthetic, is a huge force these days on the fake surfaces.

The Marathon winner Muhannak had won three of 4 this year coming to the Marathon and the lone loss was on a heavy turf course. His 2 wins before BC Day were on the Polytrack and he beat 13 horses each day.

Good coaches, football, basketball, and baseball, put players in situations where they can succeed and horse bettors have to use that strategy in Arcadia. The tricky downhill turf course at Anita also lends itself to success by horses that have already proven they could handle the surface. Enter 36-1 Desert Code, who was 3 for 5 on the course coming to the race. Trained by David Hofmans, who knows what to do with a good horse, this is a lesson for all horse bettors to stick with runners that are proven in what the task is today.

Midshipman and Midnight Lute made trainer Bob Baffert's day and he has to be commended on how he brought both of those runners to the Cup. One thing horse bettors should know about Baffert, is he is a square shooter, he says want he wants and if he talks his horse up, that's when bettors should get down.

I've always been a huge fan of the key race, a race where runners have come back and won or done well and the key race for this Cup was the Tattersalls at Newmarket on October 4. The place horse that day, Crowded House, won on BC Day but the win came hours before the Juvenile Turf and the score came in a Group 1 race at Doncaster.

Horse bettors that were attuned could have parlayed that knowledge as the runner that beat Crowded House, Donativum, took the Juvenile Turf going away at a nice 5-1.

The main exercise to be learned from this year's BC for horse bettors is to applaud and favor runners that have proven ability on today's surface, try to read in between the lines of connections before and after a race for future clues, and to continue to work on a 24/7 mode to try to get a betting edge.


© 2007 TurfNSport.com