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PRETENDER OR CONTENDER


With the scene for the Triple Crown Trail changing almost daily, let's take a glance at a few of the sophomores that are hoping to evolve from pretender to contender.

When one considers that Big Brown only had three races before his success the first Saturday in May or that some thought that War Emblem would not be able to duplicate his 112 Illinois Derby Beyer figure therefore paying 20-1 in his Derby glory, a new equine meteor may still not have materialized.

This year there are some possible sleepers that could get away on the tote.

Take for instance one of my personal favorites, Dublin, considering the Irish blood and the fact this could be a glory days scenario for D. Wayne Lukas.

Lukas, of course, the former basketball coach, trained 4 Kentucky Derby winners, 5 Preakness heroes and 4 Belmont winners.

Dublin, a son of Afleet Alex out of a Storm Bird mare, has the style that screams Classics. He posted a career best 96 Beyer when getting to the winner of the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes recently and has a right to mature with grace.



Dublin's dam not only won multiple Grade races and over $700,000, she is kin to another Grade 1 winner and near $800,000 earner Missy's Mirage.

Throat surgery has helped this guy and if he can stay healthy those pearly whites of D. Wayne could be smiling in May, as he will try to

take another step forward in the Rebel at Oaklawn this weekend.

Odysseus has only won two races after being trouble in his sprint-racing debut but when you beat allowance foes by 15 while lengthening a dozen lengths in the stretch, the upside can be huge.

Visually impressive, he appears to have a high-cruising speed, and when you consider the blood, the excitement mounts.

By Malibu Moon, a son of Classic sire A. P. Indy, and out of a 4-race winner that is kin to a near $300,000 earner that won at 9 furlongs for fun, Odysseus has a right to be a runner.

His sire is responsible for juvenile champ Declan's Moon and a number of other Grade 1 winners.

This guy will need some Graded stakes money and have to pass the acid best but his future is bright.

There is little doubt that Noble's Promise can get the distance of the Derby and he will likely be pitted against Dublin in the aforementioned Rebel. Bred for speed with Cuvee on top, his non-winning dam is kin to multiple Graded winner New Economy, who not only has stout influences in her pedigree but also won at a mile and a half on grass.

Half the trouble is getting to that big day in May but once you are there, it's nice to have a legit chance to win.

With the pace in the Derby always chaotic at best, runners that are either extremely special or seasoned enough to put up with all the distractions usually run the best.

With an eye to the race this year, be aware that the preps for the Derby are just that, preps. Think of them like the regular season in the National Basketball Association as it is common knowledge the real NBA doesn't begin until they post the playoff match-ups.

Those that watch the stepping-stones not only with a concept of now, but also with a vision toward projection for these runners when they shoot for the moon, will be rewarded.


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