Kudos to the Rachel Alexandra camp for her success in the Preakness but IF she shows up in the Big Apple for the Belmont Stakes, and that’s not a given, she won’t be a cinch.

How soon they forget.

Remember, Big Brown was a cinch on paper to win the Belmont last year but they don’t run them on paper, they run them on the track and one thing horse bettors tend to forget is that horses are not machines, there is blood running through those veins and not octane.

Upsets happen, just ask Native Dancer, who lost only once in his career to Dark Star in the 1953 Kentucky Derby. Or interview the ghost of Man O’ War, who also only lost once in the Sanford Stakes getting beat by a runner named Upset. In modern times, Hall of Famer Jerry Bailey knows a little about the subject since he guided Arcangues to victory in the Breeders’ Cup Classic at 133-1.

What bettors have to focus on is that to win 3 races in 5 weeks at 3 different tracks and at 3 distinctly different distances takes a Herculean effort.

These horses are not all mature three-year-olds in some cases; they are still growing and still trying to figure out physically who they are.

As far as Rachel is concerned, she is a full three as a foal of January 29.

Even though she matched her 108 Kentucky Derby winning Beyer, Rachel lost 3 lengths in the lane and now has to go a mile and a half.

The jury is still out as far as the pedigree is concerned.

Rachel’s dam Lotta Kim took 2 of 4, won at a mile, but lost ground in her other two routes. Rachel is her first foal.

Lotta Kim is kin to stakes winners High Blues and Lotta Rhythm. High Blues won going away at 9 furlongs, but lost a length in the lane in the second to last start of the career at a mile and 5 eighths.

Lotta Rhythm, ironically trained by Rachel Alexandra’s former trainer Hal Wiggins, handled off going, won at 8 furlongs in the mud, and was never sent beyond that distance.

Sure, her pilot Calvin Borel said Rachel never handled the going, and that may be true, but only the strong survive in the third jewel.

The reality is that the Belmont is not an easy race to win. Thirty-one horses have come to the event with a chance to win the Triple Crown; we are still searching for the 12th TC winner.

In recent years, the race has been won in a variety of ways. Da’ Tara took them flagfall to that’s all last year with a 99 Beyer. Rags to Riches overcame a poor start, came from second to last, to beat Curlin.

Jazil came from dead last to win a watered-down version of the Belmont. Afleet Alex made the final start of his career in the 2005 Belmont renewal when he also came from dead last to draw away to win by 7 with a 106 Beyer rating.

The year prior, Birdstone squashed Smarty Jones bid to become a Triple Crown winner by coming from 7th early but he was fairly close to the lead that day. He nailed Smarty by a length with a 101 Beyer.

Empire Maker got a perfect 3-hole trip in the 2003 running to thwart Funny Cide while posting a 110 figure. Those that had the 2002 winner will be telling their grand children for years as Sarava paid 70-1 under Edgar Prado coming from mid pack. In the previous year, Point Given got a journey very similar to the trip Empire Maker got when only a couple of lengths off the pace early before winning by over a dozen lengths with a 114 Beyer figure.

The sentimentalists will be all over Rachel if she makes the post in the Belmont Stakes, and she figures to take a ton of action, but she will have to prove it.

Remember, no matter how impressive a horse has been coming to the Belmont, there are no cinches in this affair. Consider Bobby Frankel’s quote in the Chicago Sun Times after Smarty Jones crushed his trainee Master David. Frankel: “Smarty Jones looks like a superstar. He looks like a cinch in the Belmont unless something goes wrong. He likes off tracks. He likes fast tracks. He goes along in a race and doesn’t need anyone to set the pace for him. He’s the complete horse.”

Make that incomplete after he was nailed by Birdstone.