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Horse Racing News


SWEET TOOTH SATISFIED


Riding high in April, shot down in May. Enter Eskendereya and the heartbreak of losing the chance at winning the most important race in America.

Derby Fever is now boiling over and it's time to try to get paid. But before we get into the selection, a few stats and trends to consider from the good people at XpressBet.

Last year was the mother lode for Mine that Bird fans as his 50-1 upset produced a $2 superfecta that came back $557,006.40.

Two years ago, despite Big Brown turning foes green with envy, he tipped off a landslide of cash as his winning $6.80 mutuel was followed by 13, 27 and 37-1 shot to account for a near $59,000 superfecta success.

Tepid chalk won in 2007 when Street Sense prevailed but when a 28-1 shot slipped in to 4th, the $2 superfecta returned over $29,000.


And if you go back to War Emblem's wire-to-wire win in 2001 at 20-1, the $1 superfecta that year paid just under $92,000.

In the last 14 years the average $1 �super' paid over $107,000 and the average trifecta in a similar time period paid over 15 grand.

Speed has been death in the Derby in the last 5 decades with only 6 runners able to go wire-to-wire in the classic.

To win the Derby since the early 1930s it's been advisable to come to the race sharp and on top of your game as only 5 Derby winners in that frame finished 5th or worse and still got their picture taken.

The Beyer Department: Bringing the top pre-Derby high Beyer to Louisville has not always been a recipe for success as only 6 that fit those criteria since 1992 won.

Let's try to get paid Saturday with John Sadler's Sidney's Candy, who will likely be second choice in the wagering.

By the unbeaten Candy Ride, Sidney's has the pedigree to thrive as they go on. You have to go deep, but his second dam Exchange earned $1.2 million, was a multiple Grade 1 winner and won at a mile and a half.

The ability he will have to prove is that he can sit just off a projected very hot pace and quicken in time to make the top and hold off the deep closers. The 20 post position may not be all that bad as he could sit a nice stalk and pounce trip and only 2 years ago, Big Brown cashed from the same slot.

Sidney's will be helped in the process by his stablemate Line of David, who by all accounts through the Churchill works, brings brilliant speed but no stick.

There is more speed in this Derby than of any in recent memory with possibly 8 or so runners gunning for the top at the sound of the bell.

Also be aware of the quotes from John Sadler's assistant trainer Larry Benavidez about Candy's recent :59.80 workout.

"When he broke his maiden, he was off the pace. He's not really a speed horse. He can rate: he shuts it down pretty easily. He's a smart horse and actually kind of acts like an older horse. Today was helpful in that being prepared for the Derby he can lay second or third. He passed with flying colors today."

Think about playing the race this way. Take a stand a make the decision to key Sidney's Candy and Lookin at Lucky in the top slot in the gimmicks and spread on the way down.

Those that appear worthy of attention in the other slots are Noble's Promise, Dublin, Awesome Act, Stately Victor and Ice Box.

Let's hope that sweet tooth kicks in after about 2:01 4/5 on Saturday.



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