The wind blows hardest at the top of the mountain and most horseplayers by now are aware of the dreaded ‘Dubai Bounce’. The latest occurrence happened with Well Armed with an 8th in the San Diego after crushing the best horses in the world in the $6 million Dubai World Cup last March. But another of the bounce theories surface when a horse returns from an extended layoff, runs big winning or running close, then throws in a clinker in the next outing.

Think about this new concept of a bounce, the recent winner.

Face it, it’s not easy winning races on any circuit, in fact, nothing is easy in any game or any sport but for a 1,000-pound animal or heavier to put everything on the line and not have ramifications is just a hard thing to fathom.

Let’s take a random look at some recent Del Mar races to try to illustrate a point and to help players not to get lazy and just bet a horse because of what he did in his last race but what he is projected to do in the race on the horizon.

The runners we will look at are recent winners or runners that ran huge in defeat that are bet big right back.

In the 7th race at the beach on Friday August 14 Super Sophie and Living Our Dream were coming off wins while Coracao Beijo was off a fast closing 2nd.

The prices for those horses were 2-1, 10-1 and 2-1 and they finished 2nd, 3rd and 5th respectively when beaten by a player that was stretching out on a new surface.

In the third race on August 15 at Del Mar Soupy was coming off a nose win, Skippy Due was just beaten a length and Souvenir Slew was also beaten a nose yet all of those runners failed to run huge right back.

Let go on the board at 3-1, 5-1 and 9-2, those performers finished 4th, 5th and 2nd respectively when beaten by a fat 7-1 shot that was off a 9th-place finish and was making the 2nd start since June.

One more example to seal the point happened in the 5th race on the 15th.

Gothic Samurai was coming off a win in his stateside bow, Italian Rules was a closing second beaten a half coming into the fray, Skimmetry was just beaten a nose, Man to Man was third a neck, while Great Siege missed winning his last race also by a neck.

When the smoke cleared those runners finished 2nd, 8th, 5th, 7th and 6th at prices of 3-1, 20-1, 5-1, 5-1 and 7-1 respectively.

The winner was coming off a troubled 6th in his first race since May and this day had drawn the cozy inside slot.

Granted, there are no miracle cures in this sport. But the best bettors around avoid the temptations to just do one-stop shopping and focus in on the Captain Obvious runners that are in front of them.

This game is like a puzzle wrapped in an enigma and some things that look too good to be true usually are.

Some of the best betting opportunities show themselves when the last couple of lines of a runner’s form looks poor but he may have had excuses, like being on the wrong surface, coming off a layoff or maybe he had a bad trip or a tough post.

Get out the handicapping shovel and start digging deeper.