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Horse Racing News


UNDERSTANDING THE UPSET


Upsets happen, just ask Native Dancer, who lost only once in his career to Dark Star in the 1953 Kentucky Derby. Or interview the ghost of Man O’ War, who also only lost once in the Sanford Stakes getting beat by a runner named Upset. In modern times, Jerry Bailey knows a little about the subject since he guided Arcangues to victory in the Breeders’ Cup Classic at 133-1.

Sometimes you have to look back, gather yourself, search out why things may have happened, and then put those lessons to your advantage as you move forward.


In looking at some recent personal wagering blunders, it came to mind to attempt to find out what I missed when I bet a losing 5-1 that was taking the biggest drop in the game but missed on another dropper with more experience and the blood to back it up.

Enter She Be Classy, who was trying to go long for the second time in her career. The daughter of near millionaire Toccet had exited three live races and was making her Churchill debut. In her Arlington Park finale, she acted up at the gate and most likely left her race behind the apparatus. The place horse in her last race returned to graduate, the place horse in her second career start also graduated next out and not only did the place horse in her debut win her next but the winner returned to beat a $50,000 optional crew at Hawthorne with an improved 90 Beyer.

Her pluses did not even stop there. She Be Classy’s dam was a non-winner but she dropped one other, a triple stakes winner, a Grade 2 winner, a proven router and a near $350,000 earner.

She had three maintenance drills since her last out and was dropping once again. As the race unfolded, the miss got a perfect three-hole trip behind a moderate pace, took over after three quarters of a mile and kept going at a fat 11-1.

Did we mention she is trained by a 23% trainer that has won Breeders’ Cup races in the past?

The main thing to take out of this race with an eye to the future is that not all horses are ready to run early in their careers and there is a learning curve for most. One can point to a similar thing that can happen when one is on his or her job for the first day or is trying to master a new task.

Generally horseplayers take a huge look at just what has happened in a runner’s most recent race but that can be like showing up for a movie just for the beginning and then hitting the exit. By taking the extra time to evaluate what may have transpired in ALL the races leading to today’s fray, one can sometimes piece together enough positives to sniff out that 11-1 shot.

Did this exercise get my money back? No, but by replaying a tough beat honestly in your mind a bettor can get to the bottom line as to how to cash more tickets.

You should never settle in this game and take the short cut or the short cut may lead to a quick exit from the track and or quick emptying of your bankroll.


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