(Friday, November 6) Out of the 14 races making up the Breeders’ Cup World Championships over the next two days, eight morning line favorites are less than 2/1.

With a $3 million Ultra Pick 6 and guaranteed Pick 4’s on Saturday, we need to beat several of the chalks to make a life changing score.

Which of the chalks are the most vulnerable?

First, I am taking a stand against Zenyatta, who will probably be a lukewarm favorite in the Classic. She takes on the boys and is going 1 ¼ miles for the first time.

While her late wide run works against inferior fillies and mares, it likely will not work against a solid group of older males.

Here is a quick look at a trio of beatable short priced favorites on Saturday:

Zensational (7/5 in Sprint): The Bob Baffert trainee has been off flat footed in each of his last two starts, breaking fourth in a five horse field in the Pat O'Brien (G1) and fifth and last in the Bing Crosby (G1) two back. I secretly was rooting for a rail draw and got it. If this guy breaks here as he did in his last two starts, he could be in deep waters if some of the speed to his outside angle in on him. He just has the look of the underlay of the day to me at the 7/5 ML odds.

Lookin At Lucky (8/5 in Juvenile): The colt is undefeated in four starts including winning the Norfolk (G1) over the main track here. Baffert is very high on this colt and he figures to go off as the favorite despite the really tough post. Breaking from the 12 and 13 post over this main track is a kiss of death and could be tough to overcome for a two year old, even one this talented. He might be one of the shortest prices on the day, and just tough to back him at the ML of 8/5 or possibly less.

Mastercraftsman (6/5 in Dirt Mile): The colt is the classiest in here, doing battle with Sea of Stars three times, and back in August at York was only beaten a length in the Juddmonte International Stakes (G1). The colt handled poly last out in a weak Group 3 at Dundalk as the heavy favorite. He is cutting back from 1 5/16 to a mile here but has run well at the distance on the turf and Murtagh usually has him in the race early, usually tracking the pace in third our fourth. He could be farther back here and there is not much early zip in here, which may not help him. He will be tough to beat, but hard to get excited about backing him at a price that will probably be around even money. I am taking a small stab against him with Mr. Sidney.

Here is my take on a wide-open Classic:

SA Race 9 BC Classic G1 (3:45 pt)
#7 Gio Ponti 12/1
#8 Einstein 12/1
#9 Girolamo 20/1
#10 Rip Van Winkle 7/2

Analysis: #7 Gio Ponti tries a synthetic surface for just the third time here, and the four time Grade 1 winner on turf this year is going to get overlooked on the tote. We can excuse his last where he caught very soft turf in the Joe Hirsch (G1). He tracked a slow pace, made a quick move around the far turn to get into the mix, surged to the lead, but the pacesettter Interpataion had some left in reserve after having things pretty easy up front and scored a shocker, paying $89.50. The colt went into that race riding a four race win streak, all in Grade 1's, and had he won that race and won here, he would be a deserving horse of the year candidate in most years. Last December he won the Sir Beaufort (G3) on the Pro Ride in a race taken off the turf. Two back he won the Arlington Million (G1), and that race has been productive. Runner up Just as Well won the Northern Dancer (G1) via DQ in his next start while Presious Passion bounced back by winning the Clement Hirsch (G1) in his next outing. The Clement colt is going to bounce back here and we should catch a decent price.

#8 Einstein is another hard knocking Grade 1 winner who is going to get overlooked on the tote here. Last out in the pacific Classic (G1) he had a tough post, stalked the early pace fro the outside, took command in the stretch and could not hold off the late running #6 Richard's Kid. The seven year old can run on any surface and won the Santa Anita 'Cap (G1) over the Pro ride here back in March. After his Arlington Million flop I thought he might have seen better days but his effort last out produced a career top Beyer.

#9 Girolamo is in deep here but I loved his Jerome Handicap (G2) win. The colt gets the ultimate class test here but he looks capable of moving forward off his last outing and that would put him right in the mix here. He makes his first start on a synthetic surface and first around two turns, but at least we should see a price. He should have no problem handling the exacta ground. He is by A.P. Indy out of a Mr. Prospector mare. He is a half to a couple of nice runners in Accelerator ($415K) and Daydreaming ($697K).

#10 Rip Van Winkle is coming off back to back Group 1 wins on turf trainer Aidan O'Brien says this could be the best horse he has brought to the Breeders' Cup. The colt has had some foot issues that the trainer says will be no problem today. After Raven's Pass and Henrythenavigator ran one-two last year, this guy is going to get a lot of attention at the windows. In such a wide open race, we will look for more value for the top spot.

#4 Zenyatta puts her undefeated record on the line as she tries the boys for the first time and this is her first go at 1 1/4 miles. I just cannot see her coming with the late move and running by this group, and she looks like she may be the underlay of the day.

Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 5/1 or better.
EX: 7,8 / 7,8,9,10
TRI: 7,8 / 7,8,9,10 / 3,4,6,7,8,9,10