(Friday, April 2) A trio of Kentucky Derby preps on Saturday offer up $2 million in graded stakes earnings, and for the connections of some of these three year olds, it is their final chance to earn a ticket to the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday of May.

The top twenty three year olds in graded stakes earnings make it to Louisville, and as it stands right now, it appears a horse will need somewhere between $160,000 and $180,000 in graded earnings.

That makes things interesting for a horse like Eskendereya, who earned $150,000 in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and probably needs to finish in the top three in the $750,000 Wood Memorial (G1) to guarantee he is in.

Schoolyard Dreams ($100,000) and Jackson Bend ($80,000) are entered in the Wood and are short on cash.

Is it possible Jackson Bend could give Eskendereya (who is one of the top two Derby favorites) a tussle, perhaps lose a three way photo and finish third, and not make it in the top twenty?

A field of ten goes in the $750,000 Santa Anita Derby (G1), running into Lookin At Lucky. A horse could conceivably lose a photo to the 2009 juvenile champion and current Kentucky Derby favorite, and not make it into the Kentucky Derby field.

Meanwhile, whoever wins the $500,000 Illinois Derby (G3) gets in automatically with a $300,000 payday.

Churchill Downs has admitted the current system is not ideal.

However, instead of trying to come up with a better and fairer way to fill the starting gate in the Derby, they seem to be waiting until a lesser rival who earned his graded stakes money at a slots rich track offering up a huge purse knocks out a deserving horse.

What if Eskendereya cuts off Most Happy Fella along the rail heading into the first turn, draws off to win by nine lengths and the stewards disqualify the colt?

Then Backtalk is beaten by 20 lengths in the Illinois Derby.

Guess who could still be Kentucky Derby bound?

Backtalk won a pair of six furlong graded stakes last July as a two year old, and has $172,566 in graded stakes earnings, while Eskendereya would have $165,000 ($15,000 for sixth in the Wood).

Should those two baby sprints count for more than the Fountain of Youth Stakes at nine furlongs?

It’s a longshot something like that happens tomorrow, but I do have a hunch that when the dust clears after the major Derby preps are completed next week, there is going to be at least one deserving three year old sitting on the outside looking in.

Churchill Downs needs to change the system before they end up looking stupid.

Here is a quick look at today’s Derby preps:

$750,000 Wood Memorial (G1) Post time 5:12 ET
Eskendereya's Fountain of Youth win on Feb. 20 is no doubt the most impressive performance by a three year old so far this year, and trainer Todd Pletcher does not have any wiggle room, as this colt needs some grade stakes earnings. The colt will be tough to beat, but Awesome Act was pretty awesome winning the Gotham in his last start, which was his first start on dirt.

From a value standpoint, he is the one to play, although I doubt we are going to see his 9/2 morning line. At 3/1, I might take a look that the colt can pull off the upset.

$750,000 Santa Anita Derby (G1) Post time 5:36 ET
Lookin At Lucky did not scare anyone away, as the Rebel (G2) winner faces nine foes here. I do not like the fact that Baffert did not go forward with this colt on conventional dirt in either the Arkansas Derby or the Wood, but the hall of fame trainer has three Derby winners, so who am I to question the final prep for the 2009 juvenile champion.

The best shot of an upset likely will come with Sidney’s Candy, the gate to wire winner of the San Vicente (G2) and San Felipe (G2) in his last two starts. The colt looks capable of handling the stretch out to nine furlongs and there is not a ton of pace in this race.

$500,000 Illinois Derby (G3) Post time 5:37 ET
Rick Dutrow sends out Yawanna Twist, who was second last out in the Gotham (G3) behind Awesome Act. I am going to like this guy’s chances more if Awesome Act runs as well as I think he will in the Wood.

I was expecting to see a better effort out of American Lion in the San Felipe and did not get it, and perhaps the switch to conventional dirt for the first time will make the difference.

The Eoin Harty trainee is one of four in this race trying dirt for the first time in their careers, making this an interesting race to handicap.

Backtalk is a multiple graded stakes winner on dirt, both sprinting, and is making his second start off a 4 ½ month layoff and appears to have plenty of upside potential.

In addition to the Wood, the Aqueduct card includes the $200,000 Bay Shore (G3), the $200,000 Excelsior (G3), and the $250,000 Carter Handicap (G1).

The four graded stakes make up a $500,000 All Stakes Guaranteed Pick 4.

The feature at Keeneland is the $400,000 Central Bank Ashland (G1), which drew a strong field of eight three year old fillies.

Among those going to the gate are Alcibiades (G1) winner Negligee and Breeders’’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) winner She Be Wild.

For Mike Dempsey’s full card selections and analysis for Aqueduct and Keeneland Click Here.