Finding “Reward” Not “Impazible” in Fayette as Keeneland Wraps Fall Meeting

It is hard to believe fall is almost over, as Keeneland wraps up its fall meeting on Saturday and snow is in the forecast for New York.

Fall of course is not officially over until Dec. 22, but with Keeneland closing and Aqueduct looming, we might as well call it winter next week.

Keeneland goes out with a bang on Saturday, with a solid ten race betting card featuring the $150,000 Fayette (G2), a nine furlong test on the polytrack for three-year-olds and upward that drew a field of twelve.

The feature at what could be a snowy Belmont Park is the $100,000 Bold Ruler (G3) at seven furlongs on the main track for three-year-olds and upward which drew a field of nine.

The Repole Stables owned and Todd Pletcher trained entry of Caixa Eletronica and Calibrachoa, who were third and fifth respectively in the Vosburgh (G1) on Oct. 1 are the 5/2 morning line favorites.

The Fayette at Keeneland drew a solid field led by the Pletcher trained Mission Impazible, who was installed as the 9/5 morning line favorite off a fourth place finish in the Woodward (G1) at Saratoga.

The colt has two stakes wins on his resume, taking the Louisiana Derby (G2) last March, and the New Orleans Handicap (G2) this March.

In June he missed winning the Stephen Foster Handicap (G1) at Churchill Downs by just a neck to Pool Play.

The main question mark for the colt is his return to polytrack. His one start over the surface came in his debut as a juvenile back in April of 2009, breaking his maiden in that outing going 4 ½ furlongs over the surface.

While Keeneland wraps up its fall meeting on Saturday, closing day at Belmont Park is Sunday, with racing shifting to Aqueduct next Friday.

The four day break will give me plenty of time to break down the Breeders’ Cup coming up on Nov. 4-5 at Churchill Downs.

Michael Dempsey provides his full card report for Belmont Park and Keeneland each racing day. Mike’s full card report includes his selections, analysis, fair odds line, and wagering recommendations. His Breeders’ Cup Reports will be available on Nov. 3.

Let’s head out to the Keeneland for Saturday’s featured race of the day:

Keeneland Race 9 The Fayette (G2) Post time 5:23 ET

• Guys Reward 15/1
• Mission Impazible 9/5
• Eightofasttocatch 10/1
• Wise Dan 3/1

Guys Reward is an interesting longshot here in a wide open edition of the Fayette, the final stakes race of the Keeneland meeting this fall. The Dale Romans trainee came with a six wide move and made a mile late rally to finish fifth in the Presque Isle Mile, beaten 3 ¼ lengths for the top spot, beaten by two he faces again here. It was his first start off a 2 ½ month break and just his second career start over a synthetic surface. His first was a win over the main track here last fall against Alw-1 company. He has had some tough luck in his career, landing in the money in five stakes without getting a win. He gets an extra furlong here which he has shown he can handle, at least on turf, and if he moves forward off his last effort on the fake stuff he can be coming late at a generous price.

Mission Impazible is the likely favorite in here but he did draw a bit of a bum post having to break from the far outside. The Todd Pletcher trainee prompted the early pace and weakened to finish fourth last out in the Woodward (G1) at Saratoga. The winner Havre de Grace came back to win the Beldame (G1) while the runner up Flat Out came back to win the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) in his next outing. The colt has made just one start over polytrack in his career, and that came in his debut here going 4 ½ furlongs back in April of ’09, winning by a length. The colt has been working smartly and is going to be tough here, although the price is going to be on the light side.

Eightofasttocatch has won back to back races in Maryland, last out taking the Maryland Million Classic as the 4/5 favorite, which is restricted to state breds. He has done his best work over the Laurel Park surface where he has won his last four starts. The gelding will be making his first start over a synthetic surface here, but the gelding does show a bullet work over the synthetic surface at Fair Hill on Oct. 21.

Wagering:
WIN: Guys Reward to win at 8/1 or better. EX: 9,12 / 4,8,9,12 TRI: 9,12 / 4,8,9,12 / 3,4,5,8,9,12