Lecomte Highlights Road to the Derby Kickoff Day at Fair Grounds

A wide open field of 13 three-year-olds will head to the gate in Saturday’s $175,000 Lecomte (G3) at Fair Grounds, looking to begin a journey down the Derby Trail.

The Lecomte is a steppingstone to the $300,000 Risen Star (G2) on Feb. 25 and the marquee event of the Fair Grounds meeting, the $1 million Louisiana Derby (G2) on April 1, the closing day of the meeting.

The race is one of six stakes on the Fair Grounds card on Saturday afternoon, with $650,000 in purses up for grabs.

I will include several of the stakes races in Saturday’s Best Plays Report including the $175,000 Silverbulletday and the $100,000 Colonel Bradley Handicap (G3).

Saturday’s feature at Aqueduct is the $75,000 Evening Attire, which drew a compact field of six runners including the return of I Want Revenge.

The son of Stephen Got Even was a major player during the early part of his three-year-old season in 2009, winning the Gotham and Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, which earned him the status of the morning line favorite for the Kentucky Derby.

An ankle injury forced him off the Triple Crown Trail and put him on the sidelines for 15 months.

He returned in July of 2010 to finish third in the Suburban and Philip Iselin, and then went winless in three starts last year.

The Rick Dutrow trainee is the 7/5 morning line favorite in the Evening Attire, with his main foes figuring on being Jennings Handicap winner Eighttofasttocatch and Hawthorne Gold Cup winner Redding Colliery.

Michael Dempsey provides his full card report for Aqueduct each racing day. Mike’s full card report includes his selections, analysis, fair odds line, and wagering recommendations. Mike’s Best Plays Report is available each weekend, with his strongest plays and selections including the top stakes races.

Let’s head out to Fair Grounds for Saturday’s featured race of the day:

Fair Grounds Race 11 The Lecomte (G3) Post time 4:55 CT

• Mr. Bowling 8/1
• Exfactor 5/1
• Seven Lively Sins 9/2
• Hammers Terror 6/1

Mr. Bowling makes his first start since running third in the Iroquois (G3) at Churchill Downs going a one turn mile. The colt stalked the early pace, angled to the inside on the far turn, lacked room entering the stretch and was angled back toward the outside but did not have enough punch left late, checking in 4 ½ lengths behind the winner. Two back this guy was a good looking winner in the Dover at Delaware Park in his stakes and route debut, drawing clear to win by 7 ¼ lengths. He did not beat a real tough group that day. Two horses deadheated for the runner up spot. Doe has come back to run second in a couple of allowance races and a fourth in Smart Halo, while Runnin Bull came back to finish third in a couple of Alw-1 races and most recently was sixth in the Pennsylvania Nursery. The Larry Jones trainee appears to have taken to the Fair Grounds main track, posting six works including a couple of bullet drills. The barn hits at a 37% clip (with a +ROI) with horses coming back off a 61-180 day layoff.

Exfactor will be making his two turn debut here for the Bernie Flint barn that is 25% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from sprint to route. The colt is a two time stakes winner, taking the Bashford Manor (G3) last July at Churchill Downs, and then winning the Sugar Bowl last out here by a game nose off a 5 ½ month layoff. The colt has enough pedigree to handle the stretch out. He is by Exchange Rate out of the stakes winner Bright Magic ($212K) who won the seven furlong Fleet Treat at Del Mar and the Marian Stakes at Fairplex going a route of ground.

Seven Lively Sins finished ahead of our top pick two back when finishing a game second in the Iroquois (G3), and then was outrun early and could not make up enough ground late in a fourth place finish in the Delta Jackpot (G3) at Delta Downs on Nov. 19. The colt as more of a forward factor in each of his first three starts, so perhaps he just did not like the track surface and/or the tight turns at Delta last out. He has worked solidly over the Fair Grounds surface for the Al Stall barn that is 38% winners (with a +ROI) with horses coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. He fits here with his best but not sure if he is going to end up offering much value for the top spot.

Wagering:
WIN: Mr. Bowling to win at 9/2 or better.
EX: 4,5 / 4,5,6,8
TRI: 4,5 / 4,5,6,8 / 2,4,5,6,8,11