(Friday, March 19) Trainer Todd Pletcher seems to have enough talented three year olds and to fill the starting gate at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday of May, and sends out the likely favorite Rule in the $750,000 Florida Derby (G1) on Saturday.

Pletcher originally planned on running Eskendereya, but owner Ahmad Zayat thought the Wood Memorial in two weeks would suit the Fountain of Youth winner better.

The Florida Derby has gone from being a major Derby prep four weeks out, to five, and now six weeks out this year, an odd placement, as a four to five week seems an ideal break for a three year old heading to Louisville for the Kentucky Derby.

Rule figures to be the short priced favorite and puts a four race win streak on the line. The colt already has enough graded stakes earnings to qualify for the Kentucky Derby thanks to his Delta Jackpot (G3) win last December and his Fountain of Youth victory.

For most of the rest of the field, this is a now or never race for making the big dance. The winner of the race earns $450,000 in graded stakes earnings, with the runner up earning $150,000, which likely will be enough to get into the race.

Radiohead figures to go off as the second choice in the race. The colt won the Norfolk Stakes (G2) at Ascot last June and with $196,332 in graded stakes earnings sits at 15th on the earnings list.

For the remainder of the field, including Barbaro’s kid brother Lentenor, a exacta finish is needed to find their way into the gate in the Kentucky Derby.

With Rule likely to go off around 9/5, I landed with Radiohead, who appears to have a ton of upside potential.

Let’s head out to Gulfstream Park for today’s featured race of the day:

Gulfstream Park Race 11 Florida Derby (G1) Post time 6:20 ET

#11 Radiohead 3/1
#6 First Dude 8/1
#7 Rule 5/2
#2 Lentenor 6/1

#11 Radiohead looks primed for a good effort here in his second start of his three year old season. The colt is coming off a sharp score against allowance foes at Gulfstream Park going a mile in his first go off a 3 ½ month layoff. He beat stablemate Champagne (G1) winner Homeboykris in that win. IEAH Stables purchased this colt and tried him in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) last fall. The colt was one of the wise guy picks in the race, but had to steady in traffic on the first turn and did not threaten in a seventh place finish, beaten four lengths. The colt is one of just two graded stakes winners in the field, taking the Norfolk Stakes (G2) last June at Ascot. The colt has enough pedigree to handle the extra furlong.

#6 First Dude was beaten just a head last out against Alw-1 foes in his first go against winners. The Dale Romans trainee has shown improvement in each outing and now picks up Dominguez. The colt is out of the stakes winner Run Sarah Run ($181K). The colt owns solid early and mid pace numbers and is making his third start of his current form cycle. The colt might get overlooked on the tote here.

#7 Rule comes in here off four straight wins including an impressive win in the Sam F. Davis last out, all in gate to wire fashion. There is plenty of early speed in here and chances are Pletcher wants to see this guy rate here with his eyes on the Kentucky Derby. That could make him vulnerable in this spot as the likely short pried favorite.

#2 Lentenor is the baby brother of 2006 Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro. The colt was beaten at 4/5 last out facing Alw-1 foes in his first start against winners. This will be his first start on conventional dirt, and I have to think he is going to handle the surface fine. The 6/1 morning line looks fair enough, but his legions of fans might bring the price down a few points.

Wagering
WIN: #11 top win at 5/2 or better.
EX: 6,11 / 2,6,7,11
TRI: 6,11 / 2,6,7,11 / 2,3,6,7,11