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(Monday, March 29) Trainer Todd Pletcher took yet another key Kentucky Derby prep, Mission Impazible winning Saturday's $750,000 Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds.
Between now and the first Saturday of May, I am just going to refer to the "Derby Trail" as "Todd's Trail".
Trainers dream of having a horse good enough to be a Kentucky Derby contender, some waiting decades for the opportunity, many never getting that one special horse.
Pletcher has had his share of talented three year olds over the years, starting 24 horses in the Run for the Roses, coming up short each time.
In 2007, Pletcher sent out five horses, the best result a sixth place finish by Circular Quay.
This year, the four time Eclipse Award winning trainer could easily start more than five in the Derby, and it could be as many as eight.
Here are the graded stakes earnings for Pletcher's Elite Eight:
Rule: $645,000
Mission Impazible: $473,434
Discreetly Mine: $355,000
Interactif: $270,450
Aikenite: $218,000
Super Saver: $163,832
Eskendereya: $150,000
Connemara: $138,500
The top three have had their final Derby preps and appear headed to Louisville.
Connemara checked in third in the Lane's End Stakes at Turfway Park, and his $138,500 in graded earnings puts him on the bubble, with the lean going toward actually being outside of the bubble by the time the dust clears in a couple of weeks.
Four of his top Derby contenders still have their final prep race ahead of them: Interactif and Aikenite in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland over the Polytrack, Super Saver in the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park or Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, and Eskendereya will make his final prep in the Wood.
Pletcher's top rated horse is Eskendereya, and while his Fountain of Youth win on Feb. 20 still is the most impressive performance by a three year old this year, his $150,000 in graded earnings is no lock to be enough to get in.
A top two finish would assure the colt gets in, but if he runs into trouble in the Wood, it is possible he could be left outside the top twenty in graded earnings.
It is not likely to happen, but it must be in the back of Pletcher's mind.
There are still nine races with graded stakes left on the Todd Trail:
April 3
Bay Shore Stakes (G3)
Wood Memorial Stakes (G1)
Illinois Derby (G3)
Santa Anita Derby (G1)
April 10
Blue Grass Stakes (G1)
Arkansas Derby (G1)
April 17
Coolmore Lexington Stakes (G2)
April 24
Withers Stakes (G3)
Cliff's Edge Derby Trial (G3)
As it stands now, Pletcher has Rule, Mission Impazible, and Discreetly Mine with their Derby work done and are locked, loaded, and headed to Louisville.
It is tough to see Eskendereya not hitting the board in the Wood, making it four.
Interactif and Aikenite both go in the Blue Grass Stakes, and it figures at least one of those will run well enough for Pletcher to move forward to the Derby, making it five.
Super Saver goes in the Arkansas Derby, and while he is not high on my list, a top three finish at Oaklawn Park will probably earn him a start in the Derby, making it six.
While Connemara looks like he might be the weakest of the group, and might not have enough graded earnings, he is owned by the group of Mrs. John Magnier, Michael B. Tabor and Derrick Smith, and the colt is their lone Derby hopeful this year.
Therefore, if the colt can somehow crack the top twenty in earnings, they may tell Pletcher to send him to Louisville, making it seven runners, with an outside shot of eight.
Is eight enough?
It is truly an unenviable position to be in, with nearly a third of the field in the world's most important race.
However, the situation is going to put an enormous amount of pressure on Pletcher, and we will be hearing "0 for 24" a lot in the next month.
Pletcher seems to handle pressure and the spotlight as well as any big name trainer.
What he does not want to do is answering the "What's it like to be 0 for 31 in the Derby?" question in Louisville next spring.
Saratoga
Saratoga opens for the 143rd year on Friday, July 22 for an outstanding 40-day meeting that includes over 50 stakes races and 17 Grade 1 races. The marquee event of the meeting is the $1 million Travers Stakes (G1) on Saturday, Aug. 27.
Michael Dempsey will be providing his full card selections throughout the meeting. Mike’s Reports include his selections, analysis, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for every race.
Get your day off to a good start with Michael’s Free Pick of the day from Saratoga.
For information on Saratoga including stakes information, wagering menu, post time information, and track layout Click Here.
Keeneland
Get info on racing dates, stakes races scheduled and track contact information by Clicking Here
Get Free Racing Picks for Keeneland from professional handicapper Michael Dempsey or purchase his top selections by Clicking Here
Churchill Downs
The spring/summer meeting at Churchill Downs gets underway on Saturday April 30, with 24 graded stakes on the betting menu. The marquee events are the Kentucky Oaks (G1) and Kentucky Derby (G1).
Michael Dempsey will be providing Full Card Analysis for Churchill Downs from Friday through Sunday each week.
Each racing day Michael will be providing his Free Betting Selection of the day for Churchill Downs.
For information on Churchill Downs including stakes information, wagering menu, post time information, and track layout Click Here
Belmont Park
Racing in New York shifts to Belmont Park on Friday April 29 for the spring / summer meeting, which includes the Belmont Stakes (G1) on Saturday June 11.
Michael Dempsey will be providing Full Card Analysis for Belmont Park each racing day from Wednesday through Sunday.
Each racing day Michael will be providing his Free Betting Selection of the day for Belmont Park.
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Gulfstream Park
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Aqueduct
For Aqueduct racing info including racing dates, stakes schedule, track layout and contact information, Click Here
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