(Friday, February 10) Four graded stakes on Saturday and the opening of Pool 1 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager highlight the weekend action, with the highlight the $500,000 Donn Handicap (G1), which drew a deep field of handicap runners including two of last year’s three winners of a Triple Crown race.While Animal Kingdom is still a few weeks away from making his 2012 debut, 2011 Preakness (G1) winner Shackleford and Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Ruler On Ice will square off in the Donn, which drew a field of eleven runners.
Shackleford is winless in five starts since winning the Preakness, but did manage to finish second in three of his outings including a neck loss in the Haskell Invitational (G1) and a good second in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) to finish his three year old campaign.
The Dale Romans trainee won two races and had four runner up finishes in his 10 starts as a three-year-old, earning $1,950,347.
Ruler On Ice skipped the Kentucky Derby and Preakness and was dismissed in the Belmont Park, pulling off the upset and returning $51.50.
The Kelly Breen trainee lost his next five starts, including running a decent third in the Classic and a fifth place finish in the Clark on Nov. 25 in his last start of 2011.
The duo catches one of the deepest fields we have seen in the handicap division outside of the Breeders’ Cup Classic in recent years.
Among the other contenders include Clark runner up Mission Impazible, Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) winner Flat Out, Cigar Mile (G1) runner up Hymn Book, and the speedy undefeated Trickmeister, who makes his graded stakes debut in the Donn.
The Gulfstream Park card features three other stakes on the card, the $150,000 Hutcheson (G2) for three-year-olds going seven furlongs, and a pair of turf stakes, the $150,000 Suwannee (G3) and the $300,000 Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap (G1).
I will include the stakes action from Gulfstream Park in Saturday’s Best Plays Report.
The first of three betting pools for the Kentucky Derby Future Wager opened on Friday, with 23 individual betting interests and the 24th option being “all others.”
“All others” is the 9/5 morning line favorite, with Holy Bull (G3) winner Algorithms the 8/1 favorite among the individual runners.
Others that figure to take action this weekend include Union Rags (10/1), Hansen (12/1) and Alpha (20/1).
Ever So Lucky (20/1) is in action in the Hutcheson and could take some action if he wins. The colt made two starts as a juvenile, breaking his maiden in his debut, then running a good second in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) on Nov. 26.
Fed Biz (20/1)is showing two starts in the early past performances, the last a maiden win on Dec. 30. The Bob Baffert trainee won a first level allowance optional claimer in impressive fashion on Thursday at Santa Anita that is not showing up in the PP’s.
Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 1
No. Name ML
1 Algorithms 8-1
2 Alpha 20-1
3 Battle Hardened 30-1
4 Creative Cause 20-1
5 Discreet Dancer 15-1
6 Dullahan 15-1
7 El Padrino 20-1
8 Empire Way 50-1
9 Ever So Lucky 20-1
10 Fed Biz 20-1
11 Gemologist 20-1
12 Hansen 12-1
13 I’ll Have Another 20-1
14 Junebugred 50-1
15 Liaison 20-1
16 Longview Drive 50-1
17 Midnight Transfer 50-1
18 Mr. Bowling 50-1
19 Out of Bounds
20-1 20 Rousing Sermon 30-1
21 Sabercat 30-1
22 Take Charge Indy 30-1
23 Union Rags 10-1
24 All Others 9-5
Michael Dempsey provides his full card report for Aqueduct each racing day. Mike’s full card report includes his selections, analysis, fair odds line, and wagering recommendations. Mike’s Best Plays Report is available each weekend, with his strongest plays and selections including the top stakes races.
Let’s head out to Gulfstream Park for Saturday’s featured race of the day:
Gulfstream Park Race 10 The Donn Handicap (G1) Post time 4:45 ET
Hymn Book 8/1
Flat Out 5/1
Trickmeister 6/1
Shackleford 7/2
Hymn Book may end getting overlooked on the tote here with high profile runners like Shackelford and Ruler On Ice in the field. The gelding makes his first start since a good second in the Clark handicap (G1) behind To Honor and Serve. The third place finisher in the race was Calibrachoa, who came back to win the Toboggan (G3) on Feb. 4 at Aqueduct and fifth place finisher Caixa Eletronica returned to win the Rise Jim on Jan. 8, then was third in the Toboggan. The gelding stretches back out to nine furlongs and his top two career Beyers have come at the distance, a win in the off the turf Three Coins Up, and a runner up finish Suburban Handicap (G2) last summer. The McGaughey barn is 18% winners with horses coming back off a 61-180 day layoff and the gelding has been working steadily at Payson Park for his return. It is a tough spot but we should catch a decent price on this guy.
Flat Out faded to finish 12th last out in the Fort Lauderdale (G3) in his turf debut, but we’ll toss that effort and expect this guy to bounce back with the switch back to the main track. He won the Suburban and Jockey Club Gold Cup(G1) last year, leading him to being my top pick in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) but he failed to fire his best, checking in fifth. He probably could have used a freshening after that disappointing effort but the barn brought him back for the Clark (G1) and he again came up short as the beaten favorite in a third place finish. He may end up a decent price here off his poor outing on grass, and may end up offering decent value in this spot.
Trickmeister is perfect in five career starts and all five have been wire jobs. Last out he came back off a 16 month layoff to win the Harlan’s Holiday at Gulfstream Park going 1 1/16 miles. This will be his first start in graded stakes company and he is going to have to deal with some company up front early in Shackleford. The five year old figures to move forward second off the long layoff and the Rick Dutrow barn has been on fire both here and in New York. Dominguez gets the call and he figures to be around late unless he gets hooked up early in a pace duel.
Wagering:
WIN: Hymn Book to win at 9/2 or better.
EX: 7,10 / 7,8,9,10
TRI: 7,10 / 7,8,9,10 / 2,3,7,8,9,10