SPAblogging Day 37: My Name is Earl

Hurricane Earl is coming up the east coast, but it appears it will stay safely east of Saratoga Springs, and all that time I spent watching The Weather Channel was not needed.

It would have been a shame if the closing weekend at the Spa was a washout.

There is a 30% chance of rain on Saturday with a few late afternoon showers in the forecast, but we are going to be in good shape for Friday’s card.

We have a late post time today, with the opener going off at 2:30 ET.

We had a good day on Thursday, with four winners on top paying $8.10, $7.10, $8.60, and $6.60.

I was set to make a good play against Lisa’s Booby Trap in yesterday’s Riskaverse, as I thought she was going to be the underlay of the meet.

She was indeed over bet, sent off at 6/5 and she checked in dead last.

Unfortunately my top two picks ran fourth and fifth at 15/1 and 9/1, leaving me with nothing.

We have a good card on tap for Friday, and Saturday’s eleven race card features the $250,000 Forego (G1) and the $750,000 Woodward (G1).

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SPAbabies

SAR Race 5 Md Sp Wt (4:42 ET)

#5 Elusive Raven   5/2

#1 Overseas Market   2/1

#3 Simply Delightful   5/1

#7 Palooza   12/1

Analysis: #5 Elusive Raven was a good second in her debut behind a gate to wire winner over a inside speed favoring racing strip. The filly caught a sloppy main track and does not need to move forward much off that effort to win here. The filly has the pedigree to be a nice one, out of the stakes winner Summer Raven ($169K) who has dropped one other foal to race, stakes winner Winslow Homer ($222K). The Pletcher barn is 27% winners (with a +ROI) with second time starters.

#1 Overseas Market was sent off at even money in her debut at Monmouth Park, battling for the lead from the outside and coming up a neck short at the wire. Two runners have come out of that race to graduate in their next starts. The filly has five sibs that are winners, top earner 2 for 7 Dixie Dawn ($73K).

Wagering

WIN: #5 to win at 9/5 or better.

EX: 1,5 / 1,3,5,7

TRI: 1,5 / 1,3,5,7 / 1,2,3,5,7

Spa Featured Race of the Day:

SAR Race 8 The With Anticipation G3 (6:22 ET)

#5 Lou Brissie   6/1

#7 Silver Medallion   8/1

#2 Powhatan County   3/1

#10 Sensational Slam   4/1

Analysis: #5 Lou Brissie goes two turns and tries turf for the first time here for the Howard barn. The colt was in the mix in a couple of graded stakes sprinting on the main track including a second to Kantharos two back, who came back to win the Saratoga Special (G2) in his next start before an injury sent him to the sidelines. The colt has a couple of sibs that are stakes winners on dirt but no turf winners. Ramon takes the call and I’ll lean toward thinking this guy may handle the switch to the turf.

#7 Silver Medallion was a game winner in his debut for the Brown barn that has been live with his younger runners at the meeting. The runner up in the race was Forum, who came back to graduate in his next outing on Aug. 28. The colt has a couple of sibs that have also won on grass including $1 million earner Sweet Talker.

Wagering

WIN: #5 to win at 4/1 or better.

EX: 5,7 / 2,5,7,10

TRI: 5,7 / 2,5,7,10 / 1,2,5,7,10

SPAshots for Friday

Horses to toss in your exotics at generous prices:

R4: #7 Tom Kitten   8/1

R4: #10 Shekomeko Son   8/1

R5: #7 Palooza   12/1

R6: #4 Winter Memories   8/1

R6: #7 Classy Touch   8/1

R8: #7 Silver Medallion   8/1

R9: #6 Alcomatch   8/1