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Zeroing in on which three year old race is the ultimate Kentucky Derby prep is getting trickier every year.
Horses are running less, getting bigger breaks in between races, synthetic surfaces are taking over, and it is becoming all too confusing.

Can we find any historical trends that we can parlay into profits on Derby Day?

I won't be easy.

The last six Derby winners all used different paths in their final prep for the first Saturday of May. Really, I am not making that up.

Street Sense used the Blue Grass at Keeneland over polytrack, Barbaro prepped in the Florida Derby, Giacomo exited the Santa Anita Derby, Smarty Jones won the Arkansas Derby, Funny Cide used the Wood Memorial, and War Emblem wired the field in the Illinois Derby.

Three of the six Derby winners won their final prep, the lone out of the money finish was Giacomo's fourth, beaten two lengths for the top spot.

Over the past 16 years, here is where the Derby winner last prepped:

Wood Memorial: 4
Santa Anita Derby: 3
Arkansas Derby: 3
Blue Grass: 3
Florida Derby: 1
Lexington: 1
Illinois Derby: 1

One trend I am keeping an eye on is how much the leading contenders travel leading up to Derby Day. If you look at the recent runners, they were homebodies.

Smarty Jones spent his entire spring in Hot Springs before heading to Churchill Downs, making his final three Derby preps at Oaklawn Park. Giacomo spent the entire spring at Hollywood Park, making three starts at Santa Anita. Barbaro was based in Florida at Palm Meadows, making two starts at Gulfstream and one at Calder.

None of the three were taxed by making long trips.

Last year, Street Sense only made two starts, shipping to Tampa Bay Downs. After that however, he was stabled at Churchill Downs, a full month before the Derby.

I am likely going to downgrade any Derby contenders that have earned more Frequent Flyer miles that I have.

There are no recent trends as far as the next to last prep goes as well. The last seven Derby winners used different races for their next to last preps.

Going bark to 1987 however, and we can find the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita as a key next to last prep. Six runners used that race as a springboard to their final prep, which was usually the Santa Anita Derby.

Four went on to run in the Santa Anita Derby, while Alysheba used the Blue Grass and Fusaichi Pegasus used the Wood Memorial as their final preps.

Another interesting trend involves the Derby runner up. SIx of the last nine runner up finishers in the Derby made their final prep at Keeneland, five in the Blue Grass and one in the Lexington.

What is really amazing are the prices they went off at in the Derby despite the lofty connections:
2006: Bluegrass Cat 30/1 (Pletcher)
2005 Closing Argument 71/1 (McLaughlin)
2004 Lion Heart 5/1 (Biancone)
2002 Proud Citizen 23/1 (Lukas)
2001 Invisible Ink 55/1 (Pletcher)
1999: Menifee 7/1 (Walden)

Another recent twist is the installation of synthetic surfaces. Major preps at Santa Anita, Keeneland, and Turfway Park are now run over the fake stuff.

Street Sense used the poly at Keeneland for his final prep, but it is too early to tell if a run or two over the synthetic surface is a help or a hindrance to getting 1 ¼ miles on the first Saturday of May.