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Zeroing in on which three year old race is the ultimate Kentucky Derby prep is getting trickier every year.

Horses are running less, getting bigger breaks in between races, synthetic surfaces are taking over, and it is becoming all too confusing.

Can we find any historical trends that we can parlay into profits as we approach the 135th running of the Kentucky Derby?

It will not be easy.

The last seven Derby winners used six different paths in their final prep for the first Saturday of May.

Big Brown prepped in the Florida Derby, Street Sense used the Blue Grass at Keeneland over polytrack, Barbaro prepped in the Florida Derby, Giacomo exited the Santa Anita Derby, Smarty Jones won the Arkansas Derby, Funny Cide used the Wood Memorial, and War Emblem wired the field in the Illinois Derby.

Four of the seven Derby winners won their final prep. The lone out of the money finish was Giacomo's fourth, beaten two lengths for the top spot.

Giacomo paid $102.60 to win and topped a superfecta that returned $864,253.50.

Over the past 17 years, here is where the Derby winner last prepped:

Wood Memorial: 4
Santa Anita Derby: 3
Arkansas Derby: 3
Blue Grass: 3
Florida Derby: 2
Lexington: 1
Illinois Derby: 1

One trend I am keeping an eye on is how much the leading contenders travel leading up to Derby Day. If you look at the recent runners, they were homebodies.

Last year, Big Brown spent much of his time in Florida, working at Palm Meadows and making both of his starts before the Derby at Gulfstream Park.

Smarty Jones spent his entire spring in Hot Springs before heading to Churchill Downs, making his final three Derby preps at Oaklawn Park. Giacomo spent the entire spring at Hollywood Park, making three starts at Santa Anita. Barbaro was based in Florida at Palm Meadows, making two starts at Gulfstream and one at Calder.

None of these were taxed by making long trips.

In 2007, Street Sense only made two starts, shipping to Tampa Bay Downs. After that however, he was stabled at Churchill Downs, a full month before the Derby.

I am likely going to downgrade any Derby contenders that have earned more Frequent Flyer miles than I have.

There are no recent trends as far as the next to last prep goes as well. The last eight Derby winners used eight different races for their next to last preps.

Last year, Big Brown's next to last Derby prep was a first level allowance race, something that would have been unheard of a generation ago.

Going bark to 1987 however, and we can find the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita as a key next to last prep. Six runners used that race as a springboard to their final prep, which was usually the Santa Anita Derby.

Four went on to run in the Santa Anita Derby, while Alysheba used the Blue Grass and Fusaichi Pegasus used the Wood Memorial as their final preps.

Another interesting trend involves the Derby runner up. Six of the last ten runner up finishers in the Derby made their final prep at Keeneland, five in the Blue Grass and one in the Lexington.

What is really amazing are the prices they went off at in the Derby despite the lofty connections:
2006: Bluegrass Cat 30/1 (Pletcher)
2005 Closing Argument 71/1 (McLaughlin)
2004 Lion Heart 5/1 (Biancone)
2002 Proud Citizen 23/1 (Lukas)
2001 Invisible Ink 55/1 (Pletcher)
1999: Menifee 7/1 (Walden)

Another recent twist is the installation of synthetic surfaces. Major preps at Santa Anita, Keeneland, and Turfway Park are now run over the fake stuff.

Street Sense used the polytrack surface at Keeneland for his final prep, but it is too early to tell if a run or two over the synthetic surface is a help or a hindrance to getting 1 ½ miles on the first Saturday of May.

In last year's race, the top seven finishers all made their final Derby prep on conventional dirt.

Four runners in this year's race, Chocolate Candy, Mr. Hot Stuff, Pioneerof the Nile, and Square Eddie have never raced on conventional dirt.

The bottom line is the newest trend in attempting to figure out the winner of the Derby is to toss old handicapping trends and look for new ones.

Preparing for the Run for the Roses has changed dramatically over the past two decades, which will keep us up late on Derby Eve trying to fish out the winner.

Gooo luck wagering on the 2009 Kentucky Derby.