(Monday, April 12) Nothing went according to plan in Saturday's final two Kentucky Derby prep races (particularly my wagers on the two races), and two horses completely off the radar screen are now coming to Louisville on the first Saturday of May.

Stately Victor was the biggest price in the field in the $750,000 Toyota Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland, and rallied from near the back of the pack with a five wide run, pulling away late to win by 4 ¼ lengths, paying $82.20.

The colt came into the race with four straight losses at the first level allowance level, the last pair on turf. His lone start on polytrack came in a sixth place finish in the Breeders' Futurity (G1) last fall at Keeneland.

The win gives trainer Mike Maker his second Derby prospect. Dean's Kitten, who won the Lane's End on March 27, is also headed to Churchill Downs.

"I've always been high on this horse," Maker said. "After awhile when a horse underachieves, you kind of forget about him. But I never quit believing in this horse."

I think I gave up on this colt back in February.

Twenty minutes later in Hot Springs, a field of nine went to the post in the $1 million Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park.

It looked like a match up between Noble's Promise, who at second in the graded earnings list has his ticket already punched for the Kentucky Derby, and Super Saver and Uh Oh Bango, who were looking to earn enough to guarantee a spot in the Derby.

Dublin, at 14th on the graded earnings is safely in, and was looking to show he belongs after a second in the Southwest and a third in the Rebel.

The John Sadler trained Line of David was dismissed at 17/1 off his first level allowance win in his most recent start on the turf at Santa Anita.

Under jockey Rafael Bejarano, the colt jumped out to the early lead and did not back, taking the field gate to wire, holding off Super Saver by a neck, with Dublin another neck back in third.

"We thought he was a nice horse on turf and we wanted to try him on a natural [dirt] surface," Sadler said. "He's been doing beautiful all this week. He settled in great and ate up every night. The guy I had [exercising] him this week said he was perfect on the dirt. You never know until they do it, and we as trainers tend to be so conservative we always get surprised when they do succeed."

Line of David became the third west coast shipper trying conventional dirt for the first time to take a Derby prep at Oaklawn Park, following Conveyance (Southwest) and Lookin At Lucky (Rebel).

Other than the winners, it was a good day for Super Saver, who was beaten just a neck and earned enough graded stakes to crack the top twenty.

Dublin did enough in his game third to move on to the Derby as well.

It was not so good for Noble's Promise, who came out of the race with a few cuts, and the connections are thinking of skipping the Derby in favor of the Preakness two weeks later.

"He had some antibiotics, to try to keep the infection out," assistant trainer Walt Blum Jr said. "You might see him, maybe, in the Preakness, but I don't know about the Derby."

"We're leaving at 9:45 am tomorrow, flying out," he said. "We'll see how he is at Churchill and he may run, but I can't say now."

Of the horses coming out of the Blue Grass, Aikenite and Odysseus will not be pointed toward the Derby. Pleasant Prince is 29th on the earnings list and unlikely to get in unless we see a few defections in the coming weeks.

Owner Satish Sanan reported that Odysseus came out of the race with a bone chip in his left knee.

Make Music for Me is 25th on the list and has a shot of getting in with Aikenite (24th) out and Noble's Promise questionable.

Saturday's $300,000 Coolmore Lexington (G2) could produce a Derby starter. The winning purse of $180,000 would put a horse near the bubble.

If Connemara enters and wins, the colt would be over $300,000 in graded earnings and earn a spot in the Kentucky Derby, but the colt is not mentioned among the ten probables for the race.

The probables are headed by Fantasy Lane Stable's Uptowncharlybrown, winner of the Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs and subsequent third-place finisher in the Sam F. Davis (G3) and fifth-place finisher in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3).

Other stakes winners in the field are Estrorace Stable's Workin for Hops, winner of the Grindstone at Fair Grounds, and Wertheimer and Frere's Exhi, winner of the Rushaway at Turfway Park.

Other probables for the race are Gary and Mary West's Call Shot, WinStar Farm's Chief Counsel, Highfield Stock Farm and Stephen Johnson's Distorted Dave, the Bob Baffert-trained Game On Dude, Darley Stable's Kettle River, Harvey Clarke and Ron Winchell's Krypton and Casa Farms I's Prince Will I Am.

Entries for the race will be taken Wednesday.

Graded Stakes Earnings List

1, Lookin At Lucky, $1,480,000
2, Noble's Promise, $738,000 (Questionable for Derby)
3, Rule, $645,000
4, Sidney's Candy, $630,000
5, Eskendereya, $600,000
6, Line of David, $600,000
7, Mission Impazible, $473,434
8, Ice Box, $457,500
9, Stately Victor, $451,112
10, Endorsement, $400,000
11, Conveyance, $386,000
12, American Lion, $378,000
13, Dublin, $373,208
14, Super Saver, $363,832
15, Discreetly Mine, $340,000
16, Dean's Kitten, $326,475
17, Interactif, $307,950
18, Awesome Act, $285,000
19, Paddy O'Prado, $250,950
20, Homeboykris, $250,500

21, Uh Oh Bango, $237,952
22, Jackson Bend, $230,000
23, Backtalk, $225,916
24, Aikenite, $221,750 (Out of Derby)
25, Make Music For Me, $218,750

26, Odysseus, $183,750 (Out of Derby)
27, A Little Warm, $180,000 (tie)
27, Setsuko, $180,000 (tie)
29, Pleasant Prince, $166,250
30, Tempted to Tapit, $156,000
31, Caracortado, $153,000
32, Yawanna Twist, $147,000 (Preakness Stakes)
33, Connemara, $138,500
34, Schoolyard Dreams, $137,500
35, Northern Giant, $132,000
36, Eightyfiveinafifty, $120,000 (The Cliff's Edge Derby Trial)
37, First Dude, $97,500
38, Alphie's Bet, $90,000
39, Drosselmeyer, $87,000 (Coolmore Lexington or Preakness)